I have a web page where 11 AIs have given their feedback on this theory and others. I am posting this link on July 4, 2026 but may get new answers from AIs at some future time.
I have a web page where 11 AIs have given their feedback on this theory and others. I am posting this link on July 4, 2026 but may get new answers from AIs at some future time.
Recurring Slope Lineae (RSL) are mysterious dark streaks that appear seasonally on steep Martian slopes, growing longer in warmer months and fading in colder ones—puzzling scientists since their discovery by NASA's Mars Reconnaissance Orbiter in 2011.
Our 'Cornice Avalanches on Mars' theory proposes that wind collects frost into cornices, which then collapse into small avalanches in the summer. As they undergo a granular flow down the cliff, they hydrate the soil, which then turns darker and stays that way for weeks or months.
We tested in a vacuum that ice can hydrate a mixture of salt and iron sulfate. Although not an exact Mars simulant, this shows that solid H₂O can hydrate real Martian minerals under realistic conditions.
RSL trails sometimes cross one another—something liquid water cannot do, but successive avalanches could. RSL only appear on steep slopes, consistent with avalanches, not liquid flow.
Hydrated salts (e.g., perchlorates) are darker than dehydrated ones, matching RSL's darkened paths.
Hydrated salts dehydrate slowly because water is chemically bound, aligning with RSL fading that happens over weeks to months.
Some HiRISE images show bright spots near RSL origins, potentially frost cornices before collapse. The expected cornice sizes are near the resolution of the current orbiting cameras.
Unlike rock or sand avalanches, RSL leave no permanent accumulations at the base—consistent with H₂O frost that sublimes or evaporates away.
Orbital CRISM data detect hydrated salts at RSL sites during active seasons, though interpretations vary; this supports soil hydration.
Cornices would destabilize in the warm season when solar heating weakens the accumulated pile of frost. Activity would halt in cold periods when frost accumulates. This matches the observed RSL behavior.
RSL tops are often sheltered alcoves or ledges, shaded in winter and ideal for wind-driven frost buildup. Nearby flat plains provide source areas for frost harvesting.
The amount of H₂O required to hydrate and darken an RSL (we estimated 5–100 kg) seems consistent with quantities of frost wind could collect onto those slopes.
For this to continue for thousands or millions of years without slowing down or piling up material at the bottom of the RSL, the 'dry granular' material that is flowing has to be frost/ice that is recycled.
Liquid brine that had enough H₂O to flow would boil. If it was flowing it would be moving salt down the hill and so in less than thousands of years run out of salt. Also, any fixed source of liquid H₂O would run out in less than thousands of years as well. There are many RSL sites and they do not seem to be slowing.
Salts absorbing atmospheric moisture could darken soil but wouldn't create flow-like paths with sharp edges and branching—hallmarks of granular motion. If they absorbed enough H₂O to flow, then they would move down the hill and not last for thousands of years.
On Nov 22, 2025 I submitted the prompt below to 23 AIs. I posted links to the responses for Grok and ChatGPT and then also have their probability estimates that this is the dominant theory in 20 years. From time to time I will add new results onto this list. As the data gets better and the AIs get better it will be interesting to see what the new predictions are. The prompt may change a bit but some of the links to results will show the current prompt at that time.
The prompt:
The planetary scientists are confident that there are CO2 cornice avalanches on Mars but
so far don't seem to accept the hypothesis of H2O cornice avalanches on Mars.
This is not liquid water but solid H2O so I think it counts as "dry granular" avalanche.
I think the H₂O cornice theory elegantly explains:
1) Hydrated salts explain very visible RSL trail that then fades (can hydrate during sublimation)
2) Hydrated salt signatures detected from orbit at RSL sites
3) Seasonal timing (cornices collect frost during winter and fail/avalanche during warmer summer)
4) Recurrent nature (annual frost accumulation to cornices can go on for millions of years)
5) Fade timelines match (hydrated salts persist weeks-months then fade)
6) Many RSL sites do show bright patches above them (future cameras with higher resolution could show more)
7) Many RSL and occur below areas suitable for wind-driven frost accumulation.
8) RSL trails match "dry granular flows" and cornice avalanches qualify (some RSL trails cross with liquid won't do)
9) No accumulation of material at the bottom of RSLs (H2O gone by end of trail)
There is spectral evidence of H2O hydrated salts at some of the "Warm Seasonal Flows" or "Recurring Slope Lineae (RSL)" sites.
Vince Cate has shown that ice/snowball passing over salt/iron-sulfate can in a vacuum can make hydrated salts
(https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LDoOZyHfBvY). So a collection of ice/snow/frost sliding down a cliff
from a H2O cornice avalanche on Mars could make hydrates that take a long time to go away.
There are pictures from the surface of H2O frost near a lander or rover, so we know there is some
amount of frost on Mars. Wind could collect small amounts of frost from a large area into a cornice.
In the warm season a cornice could come lose and make an avalanche. The frozen H2O avalanche could make some
temporary hydrated salts leaving a visible trail. Seems like H2O cornice avalanches on Mars fit the
evidence, why is this not the preferred theory?
In some pictures it seems there are light or white areas above the RSLs that I think could be H2O cornices, like
https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh6-nhvoSmKpBqEIKAhYg3563GjLB0LmFwV_0Yn9No_3CiLRNjnaguCviu56YriuKfBFOFomCzU1aPHnwmEdoMlvNVlF5HHjRComz4mWcsAcUg3plTnN2N77K_W19zwqW9Z_h5o9arQilo/s1600/6+cornices+on+mars.jpg
It seems detectable white/light areas are found above around 1/3rd of the RSL sites, and with future higher resolution cameras perhaps all sites.
How many kg of H2O frost would it take to darken/hydrate the surface of soil the size of typical RSL trails?
Over a "winter" could wind on Mars collect enough frost to get this many Kg of H2O together into a cornice?
Could this cornice last through the winter and then collapse in the summer?
If the location of the cornice was partly shaded by rock outcrops would that make the collection and lasting time easier?
Should cameras currently orbiting Mars see a cornice of this many Kg?
How many Kg of H2O has to be in the hydrated salts of an RSL tail before it can be detected from space? Or does it need multiple trails typically to detect H2O?
Do the RSL trails have a range of steepness that a collection of frost on Mars (say 5 to 100 Kg) could slide down once it collapsed?
Do RSLs happen below locations that would be good for H2O cornice accumulation?
Are there wind swept plains above the RSL sites that H2O frost could be forming on and collected from?
When an article says "RSL are better fit to dry flow processes" they mean that it does not show evidence liquid water but cornice of
collected H2O frost making a tiny avalanche down the cliff would be a "dry flow process", right?
So really any evidence supporting "dry granular flows" also supports a H2O cornice theory?
If the H2O cornice avalanche made some hydrated salts for a visible RSL trail how long would we expect it would take for the hydrates to go away"?
How long are RSL trails observed to take to fade out?
Do spectral analyses of light patches above RSL show H2O ice signatures?
Are RSL more common on shaded, wind-exposed slopes vs. exposed ones?
How do RSL timing align with modeled frost accumulation/sublimation cycles?
Can AI mapping correlate white areas with RSL initiation rates?
What subsurface ice depth (via radar) exists near RSL sites?
Are the temperatures at RSL sites reasonable for CO2 ice?
Could a cornice with a mixture of CO2 and H2O better fit the evidence?
Do RSL sites show aeolian features indicating frost transport?
Are there coming Mars missions either in orbit or on the ground that should give us more details on the RSLs?
Some say it sounds good and fits the evidence well but "the numbers work against H2O cornice avalanches" but could the numbers be wrong somehow?
What other questions could help to evaluate this H2O cornice avalanche theory?
Is there any experiment that we could do here on Earth that might support or contradict the theory?
The competing theories seem to be "Dry Granular Flows", "Transient Brine" or "Hygroscopic Soil".
I think the Dry Granular Flows (not counting frozen H2O) does not provide a good explanation of the tracts seen that
fade away or the hydrated salts. If it were dry sand scraping a surface layer to expose lower darker rock the path it would
not be such a sharp distinction on the edges of the path and it would not completely go away in such a short time and there
would have to be far more material at the bottom. Any liquid brine would boil away in a short time even if it were
underground. For all 3 of these it seems that
after thousands of years these would not still be going on year after year in
large enough amounts to fit the recurrent nature of what is observed. If it was sand in dry granular flows there
should be deposits at the bottom after thousands of years. Only the wind collecting frost into a cornice seems capable of
producing yearly recurrent activity and leaving a hydrated trail. Only the H2O cornice theory reconciles the vanishing act
of RSLs in weeks to months with their chemical fingerprints. As Sherlock Holmes said, "When you have eliminated all which is
impossible, then whatever remains, however improbable, must be the truth." While some current understanding makes some
people think H2O cornices are improbable, I think they must be the truth as the other theories are impossible.
Please make some percentage estimates for the chances of each of the RSL theories being the dominant one 20 years from now.
So AI results as of Nov 2, 2025:
The estimate of chances that H2O Cornice Avalanches on Mars is the dominant theory for RSLs in 20 years:
GThe (1) Grok is the minimal paid account doing "expert" mode at grok.com. The (2) GhatGPT is the chatgpt.com free version. The next were run on the site openrouter.ai. The ollama.ai ones I download and run on my local machine. And lmarena.ai is a site for comparing LLMs. I highly recommend ollama.ai, openrouter.ai and lmarena.ai.
Most of the AI think 1 to 100 Kg of frost in a cornice would be enough H2O to darken an RSL trail.
Most think that the time the trail fades away matches the time a hydrated soil would take to dehydrate.
Most think it might be possible for wind to collect that much frost over a winter.
Most think it is possible H2O Cornice Avalanches could still be the winner in the end.
Latest prompt Dec 1, 2025:
The planetary scientists are confident that there are CO2 cornice avalanches on Mars but
so far don't seem to accept the hypothesis of H2O cornice avalanches on Mars.
This is not liquid water but solid H2O so I think it counts as "dry granular" avalanche.
I think the H₂O cornice theory elegantly explains:
1) Hydrated salts explain very visible RSL trail that then fades (can hydrate during sublimation)
2) Hydrated salt signatures detected from orbit at RSL sites
3) Seasonal timing (cornices collect frost during winter and fail/avalanche during warmer summer)
4) Recurrent nature (annual frost accumulation to cornices can go on for millions of years)
5) Fade timelines match (hydrated salts persist weeks-months then fade)
6) Many RSL sites do show bright patches above them (future cameras with higher resolution could show more)
7) Many RSL occur below areas suitable for wind-driven frost accumulation.
8) RSL trails match "dry granular flows" and cornice avalanches qualify (some RSL trails cross which liquid water would not do)
9) No accumulation of material at the bottom of RSLs (H2O gone by end of trail)
There is spectral evidence of H2O hydrated salts at some of the "Warm Seasonal Flows" or "Recurring Slope Lineae (RSL)" sites.
Vince Cate has shown that ice/snowball passing over salt/iron-sulfate in a vacuum can make hydrated salts
(https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LDoOZyHfBvY). So a collection of frost sliding down a cliff
from a H2O cornice avalanche on Mars could leave a thin layer of frost on the warm salty slope which then hydrates
the trail. If you rubbed a rock on some snow there would be particles of snow left on the rock, the
same should happen when a frost avalanche goes down a steep warm cliff.
There are pictures from the surface of H2O frost near a lander or rover, so we know there is some
amount of frost on Mars. Wind could collect small amounts of frost from a large area into a cornice.
In the warm season a cornice could come lose and make an avalanche. The frozen H2O avalanche could make some
temporary hydrated salts leaving a visible trail. Seems like H2O cornice avalanches on Mars fit the
evidence, why is this not the preferred theory?
In some pictures it seems there are light or white areas above the RSLs that I think could be H2O cornices, like
https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh6-nhvoSmKpBqEIKAhYg3563GjLB0LmFwV_0Yn9No_3CiLRNjnaguCviu56YriuKfBFOFomCzU1aPHnwmEdoMlvNVlF5HHjRComz4mWcsAcUg3plTnN2N77K_W19zwqW9Z_h5o9arQilo/s1600/6+cornices+on+mars.jpg
It seems detectable white/light areas are found above around 1/3rd of the RSL sites, and with future higher resolution cameras perhaps all sites.
How many kg of H2O frost would it take to darken/hydrate the surface of soil the size of typical RSL trails?
Over a "winter" could wind on Mars collect enough frost to get this many Kg of H2O together into a cornice?
Could this cornice last through the winter and then collapse in the summer?
If the location of the cornice was partly shaded by rock outcrops would that make the collection and lasting time easier?
Should cameras currently orbiting Mars see a cornice of this many Kg?
How many Kg of H2O has to be in the hydrated salts of an RSL tail before it can be detected from space? Or does it need multiple trails typically to detect H2O?
Do the RSL trails have a range of steepness that a collection of frost on Mars (say 1 to 100 Kg) could avalanche down once it collapsed?
Do RSLs happen below locations that would be good for H2O cornice accumulation?
Are there wind swept plains above the RSL sites that H2O frost could be forming on and collected from?
When an article says "RSL are better fit to dry flow processes" they mean that it does not show evidence liquid water but cornice of
collected H2O frost making a tiny avalanche down the cliff would be a "dry flow process", right?
So really any evidence supporting "dry granular flows" also supports a H2O cornice theory?
If the H2O cornice avalanche made some hydrated salts for a visible RSL trail how long would we expect it would take for the hydrates to go away"?
How long are RSL trails observed to take to fade out?
Do spectral analyses of light patches above RSL show H2O ice signatures?
How do RSL timing align with modeled frost accumulation/sublimation cycles?
Can AI mapping correlate white areas with RSL initiation rates?
What subsurface ice depth (via radar) exists near RSL sites?
Are the temperatures at RSL sites reasonable for CO2 ice?
Could a cornice with a mixture of CO2 and H2O better fit the evidence?
Do RSL sites show aeolian features indicating frost transport?
Would H2O frost creation and wind collection tend to happen at night?
Are there coming Mars missions either in orbit or on the ground that should give us more details on the RSLs?
Can moisture seep through Martian soil without moving the soil for long distances like 100 meters down a cliff?
Some say it sounds good and fits the evidence well but quantity of frost collected seems too large. It seems the quantities in the
other theories are far more suspicious if you think millions or thousands of years.
What other questions could help to evaluate this H2O cornice avalanche theory?
Is there any experiment that we could do here on Earth that might support or contradict the theory?
The competing theories seem to be:
1 "Dry Granular Flows"
An avalanche of frozen H2O is a "dry granular flow". Anything other than H2O does not provide a good explanation of the tracts seen that
fade away or the hydrated salts. If it were dry sand scraping a surface layer to expose lower darker rock the path it would
not be such a sharp distinction on the edges of the path and it would not completely go away in such a short time and there
would have to be far more material at the bottom.
2 "Transient Brine"
Any liquid brine would boil away in a short time even if it were underground. Note that as the frost particles
from the avalanche melt they can make something much like a brine.
3 "Hygroscopic Soil"
Why would they only absorb in a trail that looks like from an avalanche?
If soild cat absorb moisture from the atmosphere then it will have an easy time absorbing from near a melting bit of frost.
For all 3 of these competing theories it seems that
after thousands of years these would not still be going on year after year in
large enough amounts to fit the recurrent nature of what is observed. If it was sand in dry granular flows there
should be deposits at the bottom after thousands of years. Only the wind collecting frost into a cornice seems capable of
producing yearly recurrent activity and leaving a hydrated trail. Only the H2O cornice theory reconciles the vanishing act
of RSLs in weeks to months with their chemical fingerprints. As Sherlock Holmes said, "When you have eliminated all which is
impossible, then whatever remains, however improbable, must be the truth." While some current understanding makes some
people think H2O cornices are improbable, I think they must be the truth as the other theories are impossible.
Please make some percentage estimates for the chances of each of the RSL theories being the dominant one 20 years from now.
This picture of Burns Cliff sure looks like erosion from something going down the cliff. Seems like cornice avalanches could explain it. However, perhaps sand storms lift sand to the top and slides down and causes such erosion.
Text for video below: "Every spring the sun shines on the side of the stack of layers at the North Pole of Mars known as the north polar layered deposits. The warmth destabilizes the ice and blocks break loose. When they reach the bottom of the more than 500 meter tall cliff face, the blocks kick up a cloud of dust."
At 2:13 in the video you can see the linear trails from ice sliding down. We were right that it is ice from cornices sliding down. We were years ahead of NASA. :-)
It would be nice to show that ice is accumulating as a cornice, but if this is still going on every spring after millions of years, ice must be accumulating near the top of the cliff, which is almost the definition of a cornice.
Picture after Pheonix lander dug in snow/dirt.
By Mike Wall
"The evidence continues to mount.
These characteristics led scientists to speculate that the dark marks could be caused by salty liquid water flowing or seeping through the red dirt, in spots that get warm enough for some of Mars' plentiful subsurface ice to melt. That exciting hypothesis got a boost in 2015, when data gathered by MRO's Compact Reconnaissance Imaging Spectrometer instrument, or CRISM, revealed the apparent signature of hydrated salts at some RSL locales. That's just what you'd expect to see after briny liquid had evaporated away.
But the liquid-water explanation has been losing favor over the last few years. "
Still think the Cornice Avalanches on Mars hypothesis is the best. :-)
"4Recurring Slope Lineae:RSL are special regions that are difficult to explore without danger of contamination. However, a helicopter could fly or hover over RSL without touching them. Spectral properties, daily changes and the timing of appearance and fading behaviors, and nearby moisture and wind content could all reveal the true nature of these enigmatic features."
"•Mars 2020 can acquire valuable new knowledge about RSL–Can image through all times of day, so wetting and drying soil should be obvious. MRO can only observe near 3 PM, the driest time of day.–If rover can get close enough for SuperCamto acquire compositional data, that would be extremely valuable–MEDA data near RSL site would be very valuable to understand origin of water
•Understanding RSL may be key to future human exploration–They need water to survive, and equatorial landing sites are best for thermal management•No known shallow ice in equatorial regions, so RSL are best candidate indicators of water•If origin of RSL water is atmospheric, do these sites show where it is easiest to extract water from the atmosphere?•If RSL water is from the subsurface, then habitability is more favorable
•In conclusion, Mars 2020 landing near an RSL site would be most excellent for Mars science and future exploration"
Getting closer and closer. Looks a lot like RSLs in capture from above video. Click to expand.