Wednesday, November 5, 2025

Cornice Avalanches on Mars

 

Recurring Slope Lineae (RSL) are mysterious dark streaks that appear seasonally on steep Martian slopes, growing longer in warmer months and fading in colder ones—puzzling scientists since their discovery by NASA's Mars Reconnaissance Orbiter in 2011. 


 

Cornice Avalanches on Mars

Our 'Cornice Avalanches on Mars' theory proposes that wind collects frost into cornices, which then collapse into small avalanches in the summer. As they undergo a granular flow down the cliff, they hydrate the soil, which then turns darker and stays that way for weeks or months.

Why this theory fits the evidence for RSL

Experiments with Ice Hydrating in a Vacuum 

    We tested in a vacuum that ice can hydrate a mixture of salt and iron sulfate. Although not an exact Mars simulant, this shows that solid H₂O can  hydrate real Martian minerals under realistic conditions.

Recurrence Mechanism

    The process is naturally recurring. Solar heating evaporates or sublimes water from hydrated soil, redepositing it as frost at higher elevations via atmospheric cycling.  Only H₂O undergoes solid-gas phase changes at RSL temperatures, enabling this cycle for thousands or millions of years without depleting resources.  Peak RSL activity is when temperatures are above where H₂O sublimates, hinting at H₂O.   Note that CO₂ can phase change near the Martian poles but at the RSL locations the temperatures are too high.

Slope behavior

   RSL trails sometimes cross one another—something liquid water cannot do, but successive avalanches could. RSL only appear on steep slopes, consistent with avalanches, not liquid flow. 

 Darkening Effect

    Hydrated salts (e.g., perchlorates) are darker than dehydrated ones, matching RSL's darkened paths.

 Persistence of Darkening

 Hydrated salts dehydrate slowly because water is chemically bound, aligning with RSL fading that happens over weeks to months. 

Possible Images of Cornices

   Some HiRISE images show bright spots near RSL origins, potentially frost cornices before collapse.  The expected cornice sizes are near the resolution of the current orbiting cameras. 

No Debris Piles

 Unlike rock or sand avalanches, RSL leave no permanent accumulations at the base—consistent with H₂O frost that sublimes or evaporates away.

Orbital Spectral Evidence

 Orbital CRISM data detect hydrated salts at RSL sites during active seasons,  though interpretations vary; this supports soil hydration.

Seasonality

 Cornices would destabilize in the warm season when solar heating weakens the accumulated pile of frost.   Activity would halt in cold periods when frost accumulates.  This matches the observed RSL behavior. 

Topography for Frost Collection

RSL tops are often sheltered alcoves or ledges, shaded in winter  and ideal for wind-driven frost buildup. Nearby flat plains provide source areas for frost harvesting.

Plausible mass balance 

     The amount of H₂O required to hydrate and darken an RSL (we estimated 5–100 kg) seems consistent with quantities of frost wind could collect onto those slopes.

Why we don't like the other theories

While cornice avalanches explain the observations, competing theories face several challenges: 

 Dry Granular Flows

  For this to continue for thousands or millions of years without slowing down or piling up material at the bottom of the RSL, the 'dry granular' material that is flowing has to be frost/ice that is recycled.

Transient Brine

    Liquid brine that had enough H₂O to flow would boil.   If it was flowing it would be moving salt down the hill and so in less than thousands of years run out of salt.  Also, any fixed source of liquid H₂O would run out in less than thousands of years as well.  There are many RSL sites and they do not seem to be slowing. 

Hygroscopic Soil (Deliquescence)

   Salts absorbing atmospheric moisture could darken soil but wouldn't create flow-like paths with sharp edges and branching—hallmarks of granular motion.  If they absorbed enough H₂O to flow, then they would move down the hill and not last for thousands of years.

Summary

We suggest that H₂O-cornice avalanches may provide the best current explanation of RSL — although further observations and experiments are needed.   This theory uses solar and wind energy to transport mass, enabling activity to continue for geologic timescales. The other theories lack credible mechanisms to explain the 'recurring' part of Recurring Slope Lineae. As the only RSL theory consistent with sustained, long-term recurrence, this should be the leading one.   

Possible Modification

It might be possible for the cornice to absorb into the soil during the avalanche and then seep (or  Water vapor diffusion) downhill after that without being liquid.  The RSL can lengthen gradually and this might fit with that. For this part the soil might not be moving and the H₂O not "flowing" but moving down still.   Some experiments have shown this can happen and we will probably try such an experiment.     
 

Experiments done,  planned, or desired

 
1)  Have tested ice hydrating soil in a vacuum and it can.   But this was stationary ice not a passing avalanche.   Perhaps as the avalanche flows past, enough small particles from it are trapped in the surface of the soil that when they sublimate the soil can trap some of the H₂O.    It would be good to try to test this.
 
2)  We have tested that hydrated iron-sulfate takes a long time to dry out.  This could be done with a more accurate Martian soil simulant and in a vacuum instead of just on a window sill in the sun.
 
3)  Could test that a cornice shaped wedge of  frost/snow could fall as an avalanche and not just sublimate.  Maybe as the sun warms up the slope below the cornice some heat is conducted through the ground, or convective heat transfer  as air movement along the heated surface (anabatic wind), to the lower edge of the cornice and melts that first (or "undercuts" it) so it falls over.  We can try to test this in our clear 22 inch vacuum chamber and probably will.
 
4) Wondering if moisture can seep through the soil without flowing or losing too much.   Could have some ice in a vacuum held at the top of a steep slope and as moisture goes into the soil we could see if it works its way down the slope.
 
5) It would be nice to simulate wind blowing frost into a cornice in Martian-like conditions.   Experimenting with this probably takes a better setup than we have.
 
6) Go over thousands of images of RSL areas and see if there is a correlation between bright spots at the top of RSL going away and RSL trails becoming dark.  If so it would be very convincing evidence that cornices caused the dark trails.

Evidence against this theory

So far we have not found any direct experimental evidence that clearly contradicts this theory.  If anyone has such we would really like to hear of it.
 
However, there are models for frost and wind on Mars that might claim this theory can not work.   That is not the same as experiments showing the theory wrong though.   Those models could well be wrong. 
 
Satellites don't always detect bright cornices (some estimate 30% of the time) or hydration.  It can be that current satellites are just not sensitive enough.   So it does not really contradict the theory either.   Future satellites or rovers could show H₂O  cornices and hydration trails beyond doubt.
 
Some claim that an H₂O cornice would just sublimate and not collapse.   In the experimental section above we have ideas to test this.

Sunday, November 2, 2025

AI predictions of H2O Cornice Avalanches on Mars theory

 

On Nov 22, 2025 I submitted the prompt below to 23 AIs.   I posted links to the responses for Grok and ChatGPT and then also have their probability estimates that this is the dominant theory in 20 years.   From time to time I will add new results onto this list.    As the data gets better and the AIs get better it will be interesting to see what the new predictions are.   The prompt may change a bit but some of the links to results will show the current prompt at that time.

 

The prompt:

The planetary scientists are confident that there are CO2 cornice avalanches on Mars but
so far don't seem to accept the hypothesis of H2O cornice avalanches on Mars.   
This is not liquid water but solid H2O so I think it counts as "dry granular" avalanche.

I think the H₂O cornice theory elegantly explains:
    1) Hydrated salts explain very visible RSL trail that then fades (can hydrate during sublimation)
    2) Hydrated salt signatures detected from orbit at RSL sites
    3) Seasonal timing (cornices collect frost during winter and fail/avalanche during warmer summer)
    4) Recurrent nature (annual frost accumulation to cornices can go on for millions of years)
    5) Fade timelines match (hydrated salts persist weeks-months then fade)
    6) Many RSL sites do show bright patches above them (future cameras with higher resolution could show more)
    7) Many RSL and occur below areas suitable for wind-driven frost accumulation.
    8) RSL trails match "dry granular flows" and cornice avalanches qualify (some RSL trails cross with liquid won't do)
    9) No accumulation of material at the bottom of RSLs (H2O gone by end of trail)


There is spectral evidence of H2O hydrated salts at some of the "Warm Seasonal Flows" or "Recurring Slope Lineae (RSL)" sites.
Vince Cate has shown that ice/snowball passing over salt/iron-sulfate can in a vacuum can make hydrated salts
(https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LDoOZyHfBvY).  So a collection of ice/snow/frost sliding down a cliff
from a H2O cornice avalanche on Mars could make hydrates that take a long time to go away.
There are pictures from the surface of H2O frost near a lander or rover, so we know there is some
amount of frost on Mars.  Wind could collect small amounts of frost from a large area into a cornice.  
In the warm season a cornice could come lose and make an avalanche.  The frozen H2O avalanche could make some
temporary hydrated salts leaving a visible trail.   Seems like H2O cornice avalanches on Mars fit the
evidence, why is this not the preferred theory?


In some pictures it seems there are light or white areas above the RSLs that I think could be H2O cornices, like 
 https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh6-nhvoSmKpBqEIKAhYg3563GjLB0LmFwV_0Yn9No_3CiLRNjnaguCviu56YriuKfBFOFomCzU1aPHnwmEdoMlvNVlF5HHjRComz4mWcsAcUg3plTnN2N77K_W19zwqW9Z_h5o9arQilo/s1600/6+cornices+on+mars.jpg
It seems detectable white/light areas are found above around 1/3rd of the RSL sites, and with future higher resolution cameras perhaps all sites.

How many kg of H2O frost would it take to darken/hydrate the surface of soil the size of typical RSL trails?
Over a "winter" could wind on Mars collect enough frost to get this many Kg of H2O together into a cornice?
Could this cornice last through the winter and then collapse in the summer?
If the location of the cornice was partly shaded by rock outcrops would that make the collection and lasting time easier?
Should cameras currently orbiting Mars see a cornice of this many Kg?
How many Kg of H2O has to be in the hydrated salts of an RSL tail before it can be detected from space?  Or does it need multiple trails typically to detect H2O?
Do the RSL trails have a range of steepness that a collection of frost on Mars (say 5 to 100 Kg) could slide down once it collapsed?
Do RSLs happen below locations that would be good for H2O cornice accumulation?
Are there wind swept plains above the RSL sites that H2O frost could be forming on and collected from?
When an article says "RSL are better fit to dry flow processes" they mean that it does not show evidence liquid water but cornice of
 collected H2O frost making a tiny avalanche down the cliff would be a "dry flow process", right?  
  So really any evidence supporting "dry granular flows" also supports a H2O cornice theory?
If the H2O cornice avalanche made some hydrated salts for a visible RSL trail how long would we expect it would take for the hydrates to go away"?  
How long are RSL trails observed to take to fade out?
Do spectral analyses of light patches above RSL show H2O ice signatures?
Are RSL more common on shaded, wind-exposed slopes vs. exposed ones?
How do RSL timing align with modeled frost accumulation/sublimation cycles?
Can AI mapping correlate white areas with RSL initiation rates?
What subsurface ice depth (via radar) exists near RSL sites?
Are the temperatures at RSL sites reasonable for CO2 ice?
Could a cornice with a mixture of CO2 and H2O better fit the evidence?
Do RSL sites show aeolian features indicating frost transport?
Are there coming Mars missions either in orbit or on the ground that should give us more details on the RSLs?
Some say it sounds good and fits the evidence well but "the numbers work against H2O cornice avalanches" but could the numbers be wrong somehow?  
What other questions could help to evaluate this H2O cornice avalanche theory?

Is there any experiment that we could do here on Earth that might support or contradict the theory?

The competing theories seem to be "Dry Granular Flows", "Transient Brine" or "Hygroscopic Soil".
I think the Dry Granular Flows (not counting frozen H2O) does not provide a good explanation of the tracts seen that
fade away or the hydrated salts.  If it were dry sand scraping a surface layer to expose lower darker rock the path it would 
not be such a sharp distinction on the edges of the path and it would not completely go away in such a short time and there
would have to be far more material at the bottom.  Any liquid brine would boil away in a short time even if it were
underground.   For all 3 of these it seems that  
after thousands of years these would not still be going on year after year in
large enough amounts to fit the recurrent nature of what is observed.  If it was sand in dry granular flows there
should be deposits at the bottom after thousands of years.   Only the wind collecting frost into a cornice seems capable of 
producing yearly recurrent activity and leaving a hydrated trail.  Only the H2O cornice theory reconciles the vanishing act 
of RSLs in weeks to months with their chemical fingerprints.  As Sherlock Holmes said, "When you have eliminated all which is 
impossible, then whatever remains, however improbable, must be the truth."  While some current understanding makes some 
people think H2O cornices are improbable, I think they must be the truth as the other theories are impossible.

Please make some percentage estimates for the chances of each of the RSL theories being the dominant one 20 years from now.

 

So AI results as of Nov 2, 2025:

 

The response from ChatGPT  

The response from Grok

 

The estimate of chances that H2O Cornice Avalanches on Mars is the dominant theory for RSLs in 20 years:

G
  1.  ChatGPT (chatgpt.com)  25%
  2.  Grok (grok.com) 10%
  3.  Claude Sonnet 4.5 (claude.ai) 10%
  4.  Deepseek (chat.deepseek.com) 35% 
  5.  Gemini 2.5 Pro (gemini.google.com)  5%
  6.  Gemini 2.4 Pro   (openrouter.ai)  5%
  7.  Claude Sonnet 4  (openrouter.ai)  25-35%
  8.  Grok 4 (openrouter.ai) 5%
  9.  GPT-5 (openrouter.ai)  3%
  10.  R1 0528 (openrouter.ai) 45%  
  11.  Amazon Nova Premier 1.0 (openrouter.ai) 20% 
  12.  Deep Cogito: Cogito V2 Preview Llama 405B (openrouter.ai) 40%
  13.  Perpexity Sonar Pro Search (openrouter.ai)  15%
  14.  OpenAI GPT-5 Pro (openrouter.ai) 3%
  15.  Mistral Magistral Medium 2506 (thinking) (openrouter.ai) 50% 
  16.  deepseek.v3.1.671b.q8 (ollama.ai)  20% that H2O and 15% that H2O and CO2
  17.  deepseekR1  (ollama.ai)   35% 
  18.  gpt-oss   (ollama.ai)  2%
  19.  llava   (ollama.ai)  5-15%
  20.  llama4m   (ollama.ai)  40%
  21.  qwen3.235b (ollama.ai) 20-35%
  22.  gemma3 (ollama.ai) 40%
  23.  cagito  (ollama.ai) 40%
  24.  Grok, Nov 8, 2025 (grok.com) 15% (new prompt, new grok, was 5% on openrouter.ai and 10% on grok.com before)
  25. kimi-k2-thinking:cloud, Nov 8, 2025 (ollama.ai) 5% 
  26. MiniMax M2, Nov 8, 2025 (openrouter.ai)  5 to 15% (new prompt)
  27. ChatGpt.com Nov 9, 2025   30% (new prompt. higher than previous 25%) 
  28. GLM 4.6, Nov 9, 2025, (openrouter.ai)  35% (higher than gave other theories)
  29. Gemini 3 Pro Preview, Nov 18, 2025 (openrouter.ai)  40% 
  30. Grok 4.1 thinking, Nov 22, 2025 (lmarena.ai)  35%
  31. Claude Opus 4.5, Nov 25, 2025 (openrouter.ai)  30-40% 

The  (1) Grok is the minimal paid account doing "expert" mode at grok.com.  The (2) GhatGPT is the chatgpt.com free version.  The next were run on the site  openrouter.ai.   The others are open source using ollama.ai to download and run on my local machine.  I am very happy with both openrouter.ai and ollama.ai by the way.

Most of the AI think 5 to 100 Kg of frost in a cornice would be enough H2O to darken an RSL trail.

Most think that the time the trail fades away matches the time a hydrated soil would take to dehydrate.  

Most think it might be possible for wind to collect that much frost over a winter. 

Most think it is possible H2O Cornice Avalanches could still be the winner in the end.